The following is a fictional article, from a fictional sports website called theangrylinesmen, modelled on the style of The Athletic.
“Palace needed reinforcements, and needed them quickly.”
In each post in this series, first we’ll look at a specific club’s real world performance in the 2023-2024 season. Analyse their strengths and weaknesses, and pose a simple question.
If, in an alternate history, the club had hired a new manager ahead of the 24-25 campaign, what would their “in-tray” look like? Which changes must they make to ensure the team perform better than their predecessor had them playing the season before?
What should the tactical approach be? Which existing players fits the new manager’s vision and who doesn’t? Which transfers need to be made in the limited window before the season begins? Can any of these challenges even be addressed in time before league games arrive thick and fast?
Then we’ll cover what happens in the next season, managed in Football Manager. From kicking off the season full of hope, through the drama of the January window and on to the undoubtedly tense final third of the campaign.
Can I do better than the previous head coach in these one-season challenges?
Let’s see.
First up is Crystal Palace.
Last Season
Roy Hodgson was in charge of Crystal Palace back when the 2023-24 season begun. The Guardian referred to his continued presence in the dugout as “reassuring.” This was to be critical in this tumultuous period following the talismanic Wilfried Zaha ending his decades’ long connection to the club to join Galatasaray after a season of relative mid-table mediocrity in 22-23.
Michael Olise was the guaranteed phoenix to rise from those ashes in the new post-Zaha era. Marc Guéhi’s partner at centre-back, Joachim Andersen, was set to continue to star in their robust defensive partnership. Captain Luka Milivojević would remain the immoveable anchor in midfield. Teenage sensation and new arrival Matheus França was destined to be for The Eagles what his former Flamengo youth side teammate Vinícius Júnior was fast becoming for Real Madrid.
Since then, Olise joined Bayern Munich. Andersen moved north-west to Fulham. Milivojević retired joined Al Ahli. França is still a Palace player but to date has featured 10 times and never scored.
In February 2024, form was poor and manager Hodgson’s health was too. Roy stepped down from his role on the 19th of the month, in came Oliver Glasner and things got much, much better.
In our reality however, Glasner never arrived. Roy instead saw out the season then stepped aside when our new fictional manager, George Bond, arrived at the club.
How high is the bar he has to reach?
That’s quite a tall order. 2023-24 was Crystal Palace’s equal highest ever Premier League finish and points tally.
What about the players? Who were the top performers last year?
The new manager’s in-tray
Creative losses
Thankfully for George Bond, from the charts above; Mateta, Eze, Wharton, Muñoz and Doucouré remain at the club. Evidently Michael Olise is a monumental loss. Another high-performing exit this summer was Jordan Ayew. Something of an unsung hero, off he went to Leicester City for a new adventure, aged 32.
This means that the first gap in Palace’s team is to fill those creative shoes. The previous regime invested in Daichi Kamada, Ismaïla Sarr and Romain Esse before moving on, but it remains to be seen whether those players can be quite as impactful as the France international. Chelsea’s Ben Chilwell also came in on loan to shore up defensive options.
Odsonne Edouard in out on loan at Leicester City for the year, but Eddie Nketiah’s arrival is arguably a potential upgrade on the misfiring former Celtic striker.
Addressing contract issues
Although Bond’s challenge at Selhurst Park extends to only one season, the futures of a few senior players at the club need resolving as quickly as possible. With a hectic season ahead, Bond won’t want the rumour mill swirling and players with less than six months left on their deal losing focus and becoming a distraction in the second half of the campaign. Captain Joel Ward, Nathaniel Clyne, Jeffrey Schlupp (out on loan) and Will Hughes all fall into this category.
Leveraging strengths and minimising weaknesses
Crystal Palace are the biggest team in the Premier League, physically. They have the highest average Jumping Reach across the first team, especially in midfield, where Palace also rank top for Marking. Though The Eagles rank in the bottom five sides for Acceleration, Stamina and Natural Fitness.
The team seed highly for Aggression and Positioning, but are rock bottom in the Premier League for both Crossing and Finishing attributes. What use is a big physical side without meaningful crosses to fire in their direction?
Logic would dictate that a narrow 4-3-1-2 system could be the best option. Dominate the centre of the pitch with physicality.
Without any George Bond signings, the team may line up like the image below. Though there is a full calendar of eight pre-season matches for Bond to settle on his system before the season begins away at Everton.
The transfer market
With only a £600,000 transfer budget available at the beginning of the season and very limited time to do further business, options are limited for George Bond.
Perhaps one or more from the duo of Clyne and Ward could be moved on. Then Bond could sensibly target a powerful aerial threat in attack, a right-back with successful crossing numbers and ideally an extra body in central midfield. Though with those limited funds, it certainly wouldn’t be easy.
This season
So what happened?
The first half of the season
Firstly, there was actually a significant amount of business completed before the Premier League season kicked off. There were no sales of first-team players, namely because Nathaniel Clyne point blank refused to leave, but the Palace ranks were boosted with the arrival of four free agents and one loanee.
Serge Aurier arrived at Selhurst Park for his third bite at the Premier League cherry after mixed spells with Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest. A solid all-rounder with over 80 caps for his country, Aurier’s signature work ethic and aggression could prove critical in a team built in that mould.
Brandon Williams was supposed to be the answer to Manchester United’s wing-back problems. Another aggressive and hard-working wide defender and still only 22, Williams has an opportunity ahead of him to forge a solid Premier League career. Versatile enough to either cover on the left or right of a back four or further forward.
This is where Palace have gambled on some mercurial star power. Rafinha and Hakim Ziyech have played for Barcelona, Inter Milan, PSG, Ajax and Chelsea between them. Both very technically gifted creative midfielders with the ability to play on either flank as well as through the middle and both conceivably in their prime at 30 years of age. Two unpredictable creative midfielders in a group alongside the more workmanlike Lerma, Doucoure and Hughes could prove to be the perfect combination. Trusting that both can stay fit and firing of course. Though the arrival of these two might mean a switch in system from the 4-3-1-2 used in pre-season and predicted above.
Ashley Barnes, 33, arrives on a season-long loan after returning to Burnley in one of the opening window’s more curious moves. It is envisioned that Bond will play regularly with two strikers. Other than Mateta, there was no one in the current striking cohort at the club with a significant physical presence. Nketiah isn’t the tallest and Sarr is more nimble than physical. I don’t expect Barnes to feature regularly, but who else would you want on the field to wrestle with opposition defenders, chase down lost causes and generally cause chaos, especially at set pieces, late in a tight match of Premier League football?
£30million number nine Eddie Nketiah, loan coup Ben Chilwell and last season’s top scorer Jean-Phillippe Mateta all started the season on the treatment table, missing the first month of games. Marc Guéhi was promoted to club captain, with Will Hughes stepping into his vacant vice-captain role after he renewed his contract.
The opening match away at Everton started horribly, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin (who later signed for Arsenal) firing the Toffees up 1-0 within the opening three minutes. Hakim Ziyech opened his Eagles account with a lovely left-footed drive from outside the box to equalise ten minutes later. Unfortunately, that was to be the last goal in an even battle. First match. First point.
As the bells of the new year rung, Bond had managed 24 Palace matches, losing only three. Exactly six months in charge and performances were encouraging.
Sitting in sixth in the Premier League with 10 wins and a healthy goal difference which could prove hugely important come the end of the season in May. Could European football be coming to Selhurst Park? Dream big, why not?
Low points were firing into a 3-0 lead at home to Bournemouth, only to draw 3-3 and losing 1-0 at home to Brentford. Though poor results were few and far between.
The highlights have to be progressing to the Semi-Final stage of the Carabao Cup, with a double header against Manchester United still to come and an astonishing 5-0 demolition of Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea. The Italian soon lost his job, with a permanent replacement to be appointed a number of months later.
Jean-Philippe Mateta was the current top scorer in the Premier League on 15 strikes (18 goals in 17 games in all competitions) and Ebere Eze joint-topped the Assists table with seven. Mateta’s performances reportedly triggered the interest of struggling Chelsea, which would be a concern for Bond as the January window opened. Serge Aurier, Hakim Ziyech, Rafinha and to a lesser extent Brendan Williams all embedded into the first team well. Loanee Ashley Barnes featured regularly early in the campaign while Mateta recovered from injury, but has found his influence waning in recent months.
Tactically, George Bond quickly pivoted from the initial 4-3-1-2 and 4-4-2 concepts to the above 4-2-3-1. The whole system is built on the effectiveness of third man runs. While Mateta leads the line, often Ziyech bursts from midfield as a box crasher, with Rafinha occupying the vacated space. When Ziyech chooses to stick, Eze will twist, cutting inside and supporting Mateta as an additional forward. Lerma or Doucouré protect the back four, and two of Aurier, Williams, Chilwell and Mitchell get high and wide to allow the forwards to express themselves. Eddie Nketiah has been something of a super-sub, deputising for Sarr when he tires, but equally regularly coming off the left in that Eze role, or coming in for Mateta to lead the line as a nine.
EDIT: A user on Twitter asked me for more information about the tactical setup, so I replied as per below. I think the additional context is useful to add into the article itself, so thanks @luukblank!
Response: The AMC on support often drops slightly to compensate when the CM-A goes box crashing, but the key thing is that the BWM is on Defend duty and holds a deeper position, protecting the back four. If the BWM wasn’t sufficiently quick (thankfully Doucouré and Lerma are quick enough) then definitely having one midfielder protecting the centre-backs might leave us vulnerable on the counter, but their athleticism meant that they got back into position efficiently whenever a turnover occurred. I also played with a Higher Line, but not a Much Higher Line (i.e a high pressure system), as that would increase the risk of us being caught out at turnovers, like you suggest.
For the NCB, they are a bit of an anomaly. In comparison to the regular CD-D, they have both More Direct Passing and Take Fewer Risks hard coded, which effectively are opposites – one asks for more risky passing and the other asks for less of it. How it actually presents in matches is that while they prioritise keeping the ball and not losing it (a centre-back playing a risky pass is horrible when you get countered), when they do decide to pass long, they pick their moments to do so. So you are minimising risk defensively, but they are an extra weapon offensively, as their occasional direct pass can unlock the opposition, especially when you play in a counter-attacking system. Both Guéhi and Lacroix have decent Decisions, Vision and Passing, so for me the NCB is preferable to a BPD, who tend to carry the ball more with the ball at their feet.
Back to business
Prior to the window opening, Crystal Palace cashed in on various clauses in the historic transfer deals for Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen, generating around £9million in available budget, at the expense of their future financial selves.
A notable concern was AFCON kicking off. Six first team players from Crystal Palace were called upon to participate and be unavailable domestically until potentially mid-February. Daichan Kamada would also be on international duty with Japan at the Asian Cup until mid-February. This could prove to be hugely impactful.
The January window
With fringe players like Daniel Muñoz, Rob Holding and Matheus França concerned about their playing time and signalling their intentions to leave, Ashley Barnes’ loan deal being terminated, Liverpool and Real Madrid chasing Marc Guéhi, Spurs eyeing Ebere Eze, Barcelona and Real Madrid publicly adding their names to the list of Jean-Philippe Mateta’s admirers, and the aforementioned international absentees, the January window was a critical time for Crystal Palace. The squad was all of a sudden looking a little thin, and this needed urgently addressed.
On the 4th of January, Daniel Muñoz moved to Brentford on loan until the end of the season, pursuing more first team appearances. An incoming loan deal for Juventus midfielder Nicolò Fagioli fell through when everything seemed to be agreed, after the player had a change of heart and declined the move.
On the 6th of January, Ebere Eze was ruled out for a month with a groin injury. Palace needed reinforcements, and needed them quickly.
Thankfully on the 8th of January, the first new face arrived. FC Porto’s André Franco joined on a six-month loan with a very low option to buy of just £1.7million. Franco is a versatile attacking midfielder who can cover anywhere across the line behind the striker. Great with the ball with good Vision and Balance and well-rounded attributes everywhere else. The 25-year old is a little bit lightweight to play in the middle of the park for this Palace side, but he is certainly capable if required.
Ideally a striker, central midfielder, number 10 and another wide attacker coming in would be enough to cover current losses, but with 23 players already registered with the Premier League, there’s only space for two more senior players. That either meant going with the players available and playing more than one out of position (Ben Chilwell played adequately at AML for around 55 minutes of an away game at Southampton already this season), or opening the chequebook for under-21 players who do not need to be registered.
This is why the next signing was such an important move.
Exciting 20-year old attacker Wilfried Gnonto joined from the Championship’s Leeds United the following day. A structured deal worth £19million, but only costing £3million up-front was struck, and the young Italian came in to solve a number of problems. A natural striker with pace who can cover on both flanks and be deployed as a 10, in tandem with not needing registered in the 25-man squad, due to his age. Perfect. Wolves came close to signing Gnonto, but he was said to prefer the project in London.
This left just one more concerning gap in George Bond’s squad, an extra body in central midfield.
In a move that feels “very Crystal Palace,” a certain Bellingham Jr made the move from Sunderland for an initial £3.5million, rising to £15million with conditions. With sky-high potential and wonderful versatility, Jobe Bellingham can contribute immediately, despite his tender years.
At certain points in the window, it looked liked at least one of Rob Holding, Chris Richards, Matheus França or Ebere Eze might leave the club. Thankfully for George Bond, none of them did.
This leaves the Crystal Palace squad for the second half of the season in a strong place, especially when all those on international duty finally return.
The second half of the season
January and early February was a rip-roaring success. Six Premier League wins on the bounce, progress to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup and only a perfectly acceptable Carabao Cup semi-final exit against Manchester United (wait, is that acceptable these days?) spoiled the record.
On the 13th of February, Palace were sitting in nosebleed territory, 4th in the table. Five points ahead of Aston Villa and with a game in hand. The xG table had Bond’s side in 7th, capturing 11 points more than the balance of their chances suggest, but for a team who have already exceeded their record points tally by three points when the season still has 13 games to go, I’m sure the fans will be delighted with the current run.
That said, moving into mid-February there was an inarguably difficult run of make-or-break Premier League matches. Lose all four of these tough games and the season could end a lot differently.
As a side note, In the midst of the drama, Arsenal lifted the Carabao Cup after a drilled Martin Ødegaard penalty led to a slim 1-0 win over Manchester United at Wembley. Palace exited the FA Cup at the hands of Aston Villa by way of a shocking 3-0 thumping, largely down to the sending off of Cheick Doucouré on the hour mark and consequent struggle for a foothold in the game.
Crystal Palace got through it! Four points from the four games was enough to keep momentum going. That 3-1 home win against Spurs was a crucial morale booster, just at the right time.
On the final day of the Premier League season, an unexpected Serge Aurier double helped Palace overcome the right-back’s former employers Nottingham Forest in a 3-0 rout. Despite Aston Villa dispatching Chelsea 2-0 at home at the same time, it wasn’t enough to catch George Bond’s side, who secured UEFA Champions League football by finishing fourth.
Not that Villa boss Unai Emery would care too much, as days later he’d watch his side beat Premier League runners-up Liverpool 3-2 to lift the FA Cup for the first time since 1957. Villa also reached the Champions League final, sadly losing 4-1 against Milan at Wembley, but Emery’s Manager of the Year award was testament to a brilliant campaign for the Villans, who join five other English club’s in Europe’s most distinguished continental competition next season.
Finishing 8th wasn’t enough for Sir Jim Ratcliffe and co, as Ruben Amorim lost his job, as did Eddie Howe at Newcastle, the latter being replaced by Xabi Alonso.
Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth went down. All of whom had dismissed their managers earlier in the campaign. Sacked West Ham boss Graham Potter is now at Bournemouth and must lead them in the Championship. Nottingham Forest mirrored real life and had an excellent campaign, while Roberto Mancini’s Chelsea (Maresca was long gone) cushioned the blow of their awful domestic campaign by winning the Europa Conference League and qualifying for the Europa League next season.
A massive uplift in Premier League points. Progress in the FA Cup, and 90 minutes away from a Carabao Cup final. Great sporting progress.
The players
Jean-Philippe Mateta was an undoubted standout. Bagging 23 Premier League goals and 26 in all competition from 32 appearances. He only lost out on the Premier League Golden Boot as Erling Haaland bagged one more with 24.
Doucouré and Lerma battled for the defensive midfielder slot, while Chilwell and Mitchell rotated at left-back. Rafinha, Ziyech and later Gnonto added the necessary flair to the hard-working group, while Nketiah kept his role as super-sub all season long.
To analyse the player’s numbers from the season in more detail, click above. The three columns on the far right are my calculations based on multiple factors which determine how effective each outfield player was in each of the three main facets of play – creatively, defensively and in front of goal.
Creative Output is a calculation based on Open Play Key Passes, Chances Created (Key Passes with an xG of 0.15 or above), Progressive Passes, Crosses and Dribbles.
Defensive Performance is a calculation based on Blocks, Clearances, Interceptions and Successful Pressures.
Striking Threat is a calculation based on Shots on Target, Goals Scored, Non-Penalty xG and xG per Shot.
(I first wrote about custom metrics like this back for a now-defunct tool for Football Manager 2022 and later in a similarly historic tool for Football Manager 2023, in conjunction with FM Scout.)
When you ignore those who rank highly but had insufficient playing minutes for their numbers to be considered suitably comparable; the creative standouts were Ben Chilwell and Tyrick Mitchell, both of Palace’s left-backs. The defensive talents to shine the brightest were Tyrick Mitchell again (was Bond wrong to field Chilwell instead so often? Food for thought) and Serge Aurier. Clearly the width of Palace’s defensive line was absolutely key in both boxes in Bond’s system. For striking threat, naturally Jean-Philippe Mateta’s statistics were most impressive, but credit to Eddie Nketiah for his impressive numbers, despite appearing from the bench more often than starting. Ismaila Sarr adjusted well to his new team too, playing mainly off the right but managing to bag 10 goals, including three from the penalty spot.
The only sad bit of news is that the mighty Ashley Barnes chose to retire at the end of the season, having made no further appearances for Burnley since his short-lived loan spell ended in January at Palace.
Summary
By all available metrics, George Bond’s season in charge at Crystal Palace was a massive success. A clear improvement on the season before. Finishing fourth by capturing 60% more points than Palace have ever managed in Premier League history and with a great run in both cups, Bond gave the Selhurst Park faithful a season to remember.
It seems that when taking a side with core strengths, which in Palace’s case were physicality and aggression and injecting some of what they lack; creative vision and pace, applying the right system can deliver much-improved results.
It was great fun to manage Crystal Palace for this one-season challenge. Given that I’m usually a long-term save player with a big narrative and multiple blog posts, I tend to transform a team slowly, instead of trying to stamp a fresh signature on a team immediately. In this case, eight new players arrived within one campaign and I notably completed significant business in the January window. Two things I try to ordinarily avoid! I’m not used to this quicker way of playing. That said, I still dedicated 36 hours of game-time to this save, and a further three or four to writing this post.
I had wanted to play and write up a couple of these challenges in the ‘A Fresh Focus’ series to pass the time before FM25 was released. Unfortunately that will now be FM26, but on the bright side I may have time to do a handful more of these than I first anticipated. Who should I give a fresh focus to next?
Thanks for reading.
FM Stag